2012 Euro Cup semifinals: Italy vs. Germany, Las Vegas odds and pick

The 2012 Euro Cup is into a final four teams, then when Italy and Germany square off Thursday afternoon are going to playing to handle the winner from the Spain vs. Portugal game that can place later today.
Recent history between those two teams favors Italy, but Germany doesn't care about days gone by, they may be centered on the game at hand.
The German squad have not beaten Italy in a competitive match.
"We can't turn back time, overlook about this, yesteryear doesn't be the cause in your planning," said German Coach Joachim Loew. "Another stat is always that Germany hasn't won against Italy in a major tournament, but precisely what?"
Las Vegas odds makers must feel it's time for Germany to win as they're the widely used at -135. The Over/Under number is 2.5.
This game will be a tough, hard fought match. My buddies are telling me that I am going the wrong way for this match, but website here it is anyways!
Pick - Italy

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